2025 AUTUMN MARKET - Rate Decrease?

The GTA housing market is showing signs of a buyer-favouring shift, with average home prices dropping compared to a year ago. In August, the benchmark home price was about $969,700, down roughly 5.2% year-over-year, and the average sale price fell nearly 4.9% to about $1,022,000. Detached homes saw sharper declines (≈7.2%) while condos dropped by around 4.8%. Sales volume has increased modestly year-over-year (e.g. ~2.3% in August) but declined month-to-month, indicating that while more activity is returning, it remains fragile. At the same time, supply has built up: active listings are up significantly over last year, giving buyers more choice, which in turn is keeping pressure on prices.

Most predictions now suggest that the Bank of Canada will cut its benchmark interest rate on September 17, a move widely anticipated by the market. If confirmed, this could ease borrowing costs, improve affordability, and potentially bring more buyers off the sidelines — though with supply still elevated, the immediate effect may be to stabilize prices rather than trigger a sharp rebound.